Metals and Mining

April 15, 2016
 

We expect Ferrexpo to be able to repay its debt over Jan­Oct 2016 using the generated FCFs together with an available cash. Liquidity gap could appear in November when the miner has to amortize USD 44mn on its PXF­18s. A possible extension of this loan maturity before Nov should enable Ferrexpo to reduce a default risk in both 2016 & 2017. We forecast Ferrexpo’s EBITDA at USD 234mn (­25% YoY) in FY16 with FCFs at USD 154mn. Our revised TP for the FXPO stock is GBp 26 implying a 21% downside.