Fixed Income
Ukrainian sovereign Eurobonds rose last week as President Petro Poroshenko’s party led in polls ahead of Sunday’s (Oct 26) national parliamentary election. Initial results, with about half of the vote counted, suggest that pro-European forces will receive a solid majority in the new legislature, despite a worse-than-expected showing from the Poroshenko Bloc (BPP). Our latest estimate is that the BPP will claim 55 seats in the party list voting and 65 in the single-mandate districts for a total of 120; in order to form a new governing coalition, we expect it to ally with the 2nd-place People’s Front and the 3rd-place Samopomich party, as well as with many of the independent local entrepreneurs who win through in the first-past-the-post geographic districts; the independents look poised to take about 100 seats.
