Machinery
Bogdan Motors: Going for a Long Drive - Bogdan Motors is set to see its top line jump by 2.3x YoY to USD 534mn in 2011, thanks in large part to the consolidation of Hyundai import sales on its income statement. Exports to Russia should be the company’s key revenue driver in the coming years. We forecast that Bogdan Motors’ EBITDA will rise by 3.2x YoY to USD 53mn in 2011, allowing the company to return to the black after three consecutive years of net losses. We expect Bogdan to benefit from a 16% CAGR expansion of Ukraine’s vehicle market during 2010-2015, which would be driven by low automobile penetration and increasing bank loan availability. We place a BUY rating on Bogdan Motors with a target price of USD 0.064/share, implying a 78% upside to the stock’s current price.
